While it may be US10 cents overvalued, for as long as banks and hedge funds can borrow for next to nothing in US dollars, euros or yen - and use this cheap money to buy Australian dollars for our safer AAA-rated government bonds where they'll get 3 or 4 per cent - the dollar isn't going anywhere.

Besides, it takes two to tango. Let's not kid ourselves about our economic virtues – it's the US dollar, even as only a sort of global ATM, that the market takes the most interest in. Even when the market notices us, China is really on its mind.

So realistically the only way the dollar will drop, given the Reserve isn't going to cut its official rate from 2.5 per cent to zero as almost everybody else did, is China falling in a heap or the US taking off.

Most likely – and here's hoping – it will be the US economy improving to the point where its rates have to rise.

Hmm, make that improving to the point where the market anticipates they'll have to rise, which could be long before they do.

That's why the Reserve's warning that the "risk it falls materially is not being priced in" and that on every economic measure the dollar is too high – except the one that counts, earning money for jam – just falls on deaf ears.

And so we have lower economic growth and according to the Reserve's governor little hope of unemployment falling this side of 2016.

After all company boards are more interested in appeasing income-hungry shareholders with higher dividends or share buybacks, than hiring for new projects.

Although you can't blame them. Not when the reporting season is showing that what little profit growth there is outside the banks and big miners, is coming almost as much from cost cutting as extra sales.

One saving grace is the boom in housing construction, the biggest in a decade. As it's labour intensive the problem won't be so much of job losses, as not enough new ones for a growing population.

Still, building more flats and houses won't foster long-term economic growth that requires investment by businesses.

Judging by the official economic growth forecast of 2.5 per cent, this won't change until well into next year. Or maybe the one after that judging by the fact that the rate on a three-year bond is barely higher than on a three-month maturity.

The only way rates would stay unchanged for three years is weak economic growth and much as I hate to say it but the bond market, with its longer attention span than the sharemarket, has been spot on about the economy.

Nor does a home building boom alter the fact that Australia's economy is  weakening while the US is picking up. In fact, for the first time since the global financial crisis, our unemployment rate is higher than theirs.

@moneypotts