Eyes are on the skies at the moment as conditions across the shire show the strain of a dry winter, even as the outlook for spring holds promise.

More than 95 per cent of the shire has been classed as drought affected under the Department of Primary Industries’ combined drought indicator, with two of three key indicators now dipping into the lower third of long-term data.

But with the Bureau of Meteorology forecasting a wetter than average spring, the message for now is one of watchfulness - monitoring crops, pastures and stock closely as we wait for those broader rainfalls to arrive.

Rainfall was below average in June and July but the Department of Primary's Industries drought indicator mapping takes much more than rainfall into account, agricultural climatologist Dr Anthony Clark explained.

Soil moisture levels, pasture and crop growth are also considered in light of local records to monitor the effectiveness of rainfall.

“Drought’s really complex, different things can drive it,” Dr Clark said.

“We’re starting to see quite steep declines in soil moisture, around the Forbes region and probably down south of Forbes.

“We’ve had a little bit of rain but it’s that real steep decline in soil moisture that’s the concern.”

The good news is that the Bureau of Meteorology’s outlook for Spring indicates most of eastern Australia is “very likely” to be wetter than average this Spring.

Sea surface temperatures are forecast to remain warmer than average in waters to Australia’s north, east and south-east, the Bureau’s forecast for September to November says, with a negative Indian Ocean Dipole increasingly likely in the coming months.

But as we wait on those rains the advice is to monitor both crops and pastures closely, as the DPIRD’s monitoring is in place to give those earlier indicators.

One of just eight high quality monitoring sites in NSW is in the Forbes shire, with rain gauges, soil moisture probes and climate stations to provide insights.

KEEP WATCH

The different season means growers should be monitoring their own conditions and plant development closely, says Tim Wright from Local Land Services.

Those who’d usually be pulling their stock off their grazing crops early August might actually have a later window to work within.

“The people that are grazing crops are seeing the lure of high commodity prices – lambs are worth a fair bit, cattle are worth looking after,” Mr Wright said.

“We’re now at a point on the calendar where we’re normally destocking those but there’s the incentive to keep grazing them – are we going to cause damage to those crops by knocking off our head-forming parts, those reproductive parts of the plants?

“My message is, because we’re running late and been colder than normal, our crops aren’t as advanced this year as they would normally be from other years.

“They need to have a good close look at their crop stages where they’re grazing their cereals.”

This message is just as important when it comes to pastures, with preserving them for feed also key.

For straight croppers, Mr Wright’s message is to monitor crop health particularly as Spring conditions arrive: monitor for fungicide requirements and when you do spray, make sure you’re targeting your main production leaf.

“Don’t spray on the calendar, spray on your crop stage,” he said.

Peter Matthews is a technical special grain services with the department and he’s overseeing cropping trials through our region – cereals, canola and faba beans among them from north to south and west of Forbes.

While there have been storm-based events that mean conditions vary farm to farm, he’s certainly seeing crops running later than usual given that delayed start to the season.

“There have been some rain events – north of Forbes seems to be doing better than south of Forbes – but what we haven’t seen since the breaking rain in May is a large, widespread rain event,” Mr Matthews said.

There’s been enough moisture in the small, showery events to keep crops ticking over, but not enough to produce the sort of plant growth and development growers would be looking for at this time of year.

CONTRIBUTE TO THE DATA

Dr Clark would love more people to contribute to monitoring through the Farm Tracker app, available for download.

This helps farmers keep track of their own data, but also contributes to the department’s understanding of what’s happening on ground as conditions can vary so much.