Three devastatingly dry years of drought have broken with what looks to be a record wet for Forbes.
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Since January 2020, on the back of three years of drought, Forbes airport has recorded 2644mm of rain.
That's more than 105 inches, with a total 794.2mm in 2020 and 1052.2mm in 2021, according to Bureau of Meteorology records.
2022 isn't over yet and we've already had 797.6mm, with 138.6mm of that in October.
Last Friday, October 21, was our wettest 24-hour period for the month with 39.4mm in the airport gauge.
Is it our wettest three-year period on record?
Looking back at the Bureau's records for both Forbes Airport (since 1996) and Camp Street (1876 to 1997) some of the stand-out wet periods are:
- 1948 to 1950 - 2054.5mm with 1130mm in 1950
- 1950 to 1952 - 2096.9mm including the 1150mm in 1950
- 1954 to 1956 - 2299.4mm with 911.6mm in 1956
- 1968 to 1970 - 2272.8mm with 851.8mm in 1969
- 1972 to 1974 - 2162.7mm with 934mm in 1973
- 1988 to 1990 - 1941.2mm with 783.6mm in 1990
- 2010 to 2012 - 2124.6mm with 944.8mm in 2010.
There have certainly been some wet years, and there is some incomplete data in a few years including 1991 that makes comparisons tricky, but our impressions that this wet spell has been particularly intense aren't wrong.
The rains have seemed relentless, and now major flooding is impacting the district for the second time in 12 months.
Bedgerabong and surrounds have been experiencing major flooding since October 14, with the last peak now past Jemalong causing major flooding at Condobolin and further downstream.
The Jemalong gauge hit the moderate level of flooding in mid-September and residents have been preparing for isolation or negotiating frequently changing road closures, water over roads and pavement damage ever since.
Murray Brown has farmed on the floodplain all his life, and followed in his father and grandfather's footsteps, so he's pretty familiar with the impacts of flooding at Bedgerabong.
His family, and those around him, are constantly monitoring river flows and predictions.
They've been managing around river rises for months now, relocating sheep or machinery to where they need to be whenever there's an opportunity to ensure they can continue to care for them.
"Because it's been such an extended period of time we have supplementary fed the stock through winter - it's been similar to dry years in that," Mr Brown said.
Once the country has been under water for extended periods, there's nothing productive left, he added.
Thankfully Bedgerabong has been spared heavy rainfall this week, the Browns have had 20mm over the past five days, but they're preparing for the river to rise again.
"Realistically, things aren't going to change for another week to 10 days with the extra water coming ... all of a sudden that's four months of water running out of the river," Mr Brown said.
The timing of this flooding is devastating for crops, for the second year in a row, Mr Brown says he had fairly limited expectations of cropping this year.
"In the past we have cropped the main flood area but the river ran out in January," Mr Brown said.
"Looking at the forecast, it was not an option.
"It's looking like about 10 per cent of our wheat will be harvestable ... but we are not big croppers."
The fact that this flood has come just 12 months after another similar event, and after an even bigger one in 2016, also adds up.
"We are used to floods, but when I was a kid the big one was 1990, before that it was 1974," Mr Brown remembered.
"2016, 2021 and 2022 have all been major events."
2016 remains the biggest, with this year looking a little higher than 2021.
Upstream of Forbes, Lex and Sally Crosby live near the Southern Cross breakout between Forbes and Eugowra.
The earlier floodwaters have receded from their place but they were watching the water rise with the next flows of water on Wednesday morning.
They too have seen bigger floods in their 25 years on the place, but this is the fourth time this year water has spilled across their property from the Lachlan River.
So far they've been able to move their cattle to high ground, they haven't been forced to feed them yet although that's happened in the past.
"We've got 800 acres here and last time - a couple of weeks ago - 650 was under water," he said.
"Lucky we've got a lot of grass on our high country."
Mr Crosby doesn't think this rise looks quite as high, but they've already lost a lot of feed due to the inundation.
"We had so much feed, up over my knees, it's all rotten," he said.
"We had fish swimming in the bottom of our garden."
The Crosbys have been cut off by road from Eugowra, and going anywhere requires navigating around road closures and through severely damaged roads.
But it's been watching the district's get wiped out for a second season in a row that's really impacted him.
"We need that (Wyangala) dam wall raised," Mr Crosby said, with that space for flood mitigation to avoid situations like this in future.
STAY UPDATED
- Weather warnings and river height predictions: bom.gov.au/nsw/warnings
- SES advice: ses.nsw.gov.au for warnings
- Road closures: forbes.nsw.gov.au
FOR ASSISTANCE
- SES 132 500 for assistance including resupply if you're isolated
- Rural Aid: 1300 175 594 or ruralaid.org.au/counsellors