The late break to the winter cropping season may not be as dire as it seems, with warmer soil temperatures and the welcomed moisture enough to renew optimism in a brighter season.
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Agriwest agronomist, Guy Webb, said last weekend’s rain came at a perfect time, allowing farmers to well and truly get winter cropping programs underway, and when combined with warmer soil conditions was enough to kickstart germination in later sown canola.
“This was pretty well a perfect start to the season, but we do need the follow-up rain,” Mr Webb said.
The district generally received between 20 and 30mm of rain, even more in some areas, with the high possibility of another decent rainfall coming this weekend.
This predicted follow-up would be perfect, Mr Webb said, in allowing people to still get onto the ground and the crops to start growing with the big rain to come hopefully in June.
He was optimistic that, as the Bureau of Meteorology predicted some weeks ago, the rainfall systems over Australia were on the cusp of changing from an El Nino weather pattern, characterised by warm temperatures and dry conditions, to the traditionally wetter La Nina system.
“Unseasonable warmth and the warmer soil temperatures can be a benefit, in that it can jumpstart germination of seed, but it does highlight the unpredictableness of the season,” Mr Webb said.
Canola was still being sown in the area owing to the lack of a frost to date combined with the warmer soil temperatures, although Mr Webb did not expect this to continue much after this weekend owing to the lateness.
“We have had unprecedented April temperatures that are four degrees above the average for this region.
“In Queensland, where they are still in drought and feeding stock, it is about 14 degrees above the April average.
“Only one thing we can be certain of is that the season can be uncertain,” Mr Webb added.
“We were told by the Bureau of Meteorology two weeks ago that there was over a 50 per cent chance of La Nina conditions developing - we are hopefully experiencing the tail end of the El Nino.”
This could be the catalyst for farmers to consider this is the end of the dry period, and the arrival of “good conditions” for this winter season, and last weekend’s rain was a “great start to the season” in starting to fill a very dry soil profile.
“The rain we did have, although very welcome, was enough to get us going, but we are going to need to get more follow-up rain to top up the soil profile,” he said.
More rain on way
According to the Bureau of Meteorology, it could very well be a rather wet end to the weekend.
The website has forecast an 80 per cent chance of between five and 20mm of rain falling mostly in the afternoon and evening on Sunday.
This rain should ease on Monday, with an 80 per cent chance of between three and 10mm of rain on Monday.
The broader outlook, for the May to July period, is also appearing promising with Forbes likely to receive above the median 120mm of rain.
There is a 98 per cent chance of receiving at least 50mm, and 89 per cent chance of at least 100mm, with a 58 per cent chance of 150mm
The Bureau of Meteorology’s rainfall outlook for May to July indicates wetter than normal conditions are likely across western NSW, areas of central NSW and the western Riverina.
Information on a vast range of services and support to prepare for and manage drought conditions are available at Droughthub - www.droughthub.nsw.gov.au
The DPI Seasonal Conditions Report is available on the DPI website www.dpi.nsw.gov.au/agriculture/emergency/seasonal-conditions
The LLS on-ground Seasonal Conditions Reports are available on the LLS website
http://www.lls.nsw.gov.au/agriculture/seasonal-conditions
