Parkes agronomist Peter Yelland reckons grain growers in the region are facing a 'risk exposure higher than we've ever had', but there is still plenty to be positive about as well for farmers.
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Flooding and huge rain events at the worst possible time hugely affected the winter cropping harvest at the end of last year, though prices continued to skyrocket.
"The last harvest was interesting, because the pricing at the time didn't reflect the quality," Peter told the Parkes Champion Post.
"It was attractive though, and has risen since then due to the world situation, so the dollar is generated last harvest would have been even significantly higher, though obviously down grades in quality and loss of yield would've brought it down.
"Canola in particular was very profitable with a large area planted," said Peter.
Up to 200mm has fallen in some places across the Parkes region, which has continued to top up the already strong water profile.
Peter said while that is obviously a huge plus, world events like the Ukraine invasion and Chinese politics are having a huge say on what grain growers can expect for the upcoming summer and winter cropping seasons.
"Water profile is very solid for this time of year...we wouldn't usually be able to grow sorgum out here, but it has been so wet we're almost getting irrigated yields," he said.
"Overall the outlook is pretty positive, but the negative at the moment is that the input cost are basically double what they were last year.
"In Australia we are reliant on the world market, urea has almost doubled in price, fuel prices are huge, fertilisers, machinery and chemicals are much more expensive and sea freigh is huge too.
"The trouble is, they are commodities and they rise and fall based on supply and demand, and outside of manufacturing stuff on our own soil, there is not much we can do.
"Urea was already sarce and expensive, but Russia is the largest manufacturer of it so it has gotten even worse," said Peter.
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All this adds up, literally, to higher risks for farmers, who are at the mercy of much higher input prices than usual.
Peter said he had to advise clients to budget more than double last season.
"Wheat growers will need 3 tonnes per hectare just to break even, which is above average," he said.
"Fertisliser is 30 per cent of input cost...I usually budget for $150 a hectare around here, but this year it will need to be around $300 a hectare.
"We'll have to add a lot of nutrients this year, and urea is a big part of that.
"The risk exposure is higher than we've ever had, excluding the days when interest rates were at 18 per cent, but hopefully it will be high reward," said Peter.
The latest crop report from the Federal Department of Agriculture, Water and the Environment (ABARES) indicated input prices would be influential.
'Over the medium term, farm production is forecast to fall and prices to ease, so the pressure of input costs will become more significant. In the slower recovery scenario, inflation in Australia will be higher for longer, which will add additional pressure on farm inputs,' the report read.
Positively though, the ABARES report forecasted good results for both the summer and winter cropping season.
'The summer cropping season has been excellent.
'Although record high November rainfall damaged some early sown crops which had to be resown, the increased soil moisture availability was beneficial for plant establishment.
'Total winter crop production in New South Wales is forecast to fall marginally in 2021-22 to 18.8 million tonnes, 81 per cent above the 10-year average, and the second highest on record,' the report indicated - a positive sign for local farmers.
Peter is the director of PY Agronomy, and you can contact him at peter@pyag.com.au or 0429 825 108.
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